Evaluation of Applicability of Global Solar Radiation Prediction Models for Kocaeli

Nurullah ARSLANOĞLU
1.641 441

Abstract


Design and analyses of solar energy systems needs value of global solar radiation falling on the surface of the earth. In this study,  thirty relative sunshine duration based regression models in the literature for determining the monthly average daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface for Kocaeli were investigated. To indicate the performance of the models, the following statistical test methods are used: mean absolute bias error (MABE), mean bias error (MBE), mean absolute percent error (MAPE), mean percent error (MPE), root mean square error (RMSE). According to the statistical performance, Lewis model (Model 23), Model-18 (Jin et al.) and Model 8 (Bahel et al.) showed the best estimation of the global solar radiation on a horizontal surface for Kocaeli.


Keywords


Solar radiation; Regression models; Daily global solar radiation

Full Text:

PDF (Türkçe)


DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.17482/uujfe.60277

References


Akinoğlu, B. G., and Ecevit, A. (1990) A further comparison and discussion of sunshine based models to estimate global solar radiation, Solar Energy, 15,865–872. doi:10.1016/0360-5442(90)90068-D

Aksoy, B. (1997) Estimated monthly average global radiation for Turkey and its comparison with observations, Renewable Energy, 10,625–633. doi:10.1016/S0960-1481(96)00035-3

Almorox, J. and Hontoria, C. (2004) Global solar radiation estimation using sunshine duration in Spain, Energy Convers.Manage., 45,1529–1535. doi:10.1016/j.enconman.2003.08.022

Alsaad, M. A. (1990) Characteristic distribution of global radiation for Amman, Jordan, Solar Wind Technol., 7,261–266. doi:10.1016/0741-983X(90)90095-J

Angstrom, A. (1924) Solar and terrestrial radiation, Q. J. R. Meteorolog. Soc., 50,121–125. doi: 10.1002/qj.49705021008

Aras, H., Balli, O., and Hepbasli, A. (2006) Global solar radiation Potential. Part 1. Model development, Energy Sources Part B, 1,303–315. doi:10.1080/15567240500398040

Bahel, V., Srinivasan, R., and Bakhsh, H. (1986) Solar radiation for Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, Energy ,11,985–989. doi:10.1016/0360-5442(86)90029-0

Bahel, V., Bakhsh, H., and Srinivasan, R. (1987) A correlation for estimation of global solar radiation, Energy, 12,131–135. doi:10.1016/0360-5442(87)90117-4

Jain, S., and Jain, P. C. (1988) A comparison of the Angstrom-type correlations and the estimation of monthly average daily global irradiation, Solar Energy, 40,93–98. doi:10.1016/0038-092X(88)90076-X

Jin, Z., Yezheng, W., and Gang, Y. (2005) General formula for estimation of monthly average daily global solar radiation in China, Energy Convers. Manage., 46, 257–268.

doi:10.1016/j.enconman.2004.02.020

Lewis, G. (1992) An empirical relation for estimating global irradiation for Tennessee, USA, Energy Convers. Manage.,

,1097–1099. doi:10.1016/0196-8904(92)90007-J

Louche, A., Notton, G., Poggi, P., and Simonnot, G. (1991) Correlations for direct normal and global horizontal irradiation on a French Mediterranean site, Solar Energy, 46,261–266. doi:10.1016/0038-092X(91)90072-5

Luhanga, P. V. C., and Andringa, J. (1990) Characteristic of solar radiation at Sebele, Gaborone, Botswana, Solar Energy, 44,71–81. doi:10.1016/0038-092X(90)90069-O

Ogelman, H., Ecevit, A., and Tasdemiroglu, E. (1984) A new method for estimating solar radiation from bright sunshine data, Solar Energy, 33,619–625. doi:10.1016/0038-092X(84)90018-5

Ozturk, M. (2015) An Evaluation of Global Solar Radiation Empirical Formulations in Isparta, Turkey, Energy Sources, Part A: Recovery, Utilization, and Environmental Effects, 37,2474–2486. doi:10.1080/15567036.2012.745037

Prescott, J.A. (1940) Evaporation from water surface in relation to solar radiation, Trans Roy Soc Austr, 46,114–8.

Page, J.K. (1961) The estimation of monthly mean values of daily total short wave radiation on vertical and inclined surfaces from sunshine records for latitudes 400N–400S, In: Proceedings of UN conference on new sources of energy 378–90.

Said, R., Mansor, M., and Abuain, T. (1998) Estimation of global and diffuse radiation at Tripoli, Renewable Energy, 14,221–227. doi:10.1016/S0960-1481(98)00071-8

Samuel, T. D. M. A. (1991) Estimation of global radiation for Sri Lanka, Solar Energy, 47,333–337. doi:10.1016/0038-092X(91)90026-S

Tahran, S., and Sarı, A. (2005) Model selection for global and diffuse radiation over the Central Black Sea (CBS) region of Turkey, Energy Convers. Manage., 46,605–613. doi:10.1016/j.enconman.2004.04.004

Tasdemiroglu, E., and Sever, R. (1991b) An improved correlation for estimating solar radiation from bright sunshine data for Turkey, Energy Convers. Manage. 31,599–600. doi:10.1016/0196-8904(91)90095-Z

Tırıs, M., Tırıs, C., and Erdalli, Y. (1997)Water heating systems by solar energy. Marmara Research Centre, Institute of Energy Systems and Environmental Research, NATO TU-COATING, Gebze, Kocaeli, Turkey.[in Turkish].

Togrul, I. T., and Togrul, H. (2002) Global solar radiation over Turkey: Comparison of predicted and measured data, Renewable Energy, 25,55–67. doi:10.1016/S0960-1481(00)00197-X

Ulgen, K., and Hepbasli, A. (2002) Comparison of solar radiation correlations for Izmir, Turkey, Int. J. Energy Res., 26,413–430. doi: 10.1002/er.794

Ulgen, K., and Hepbasli, A. ( 2004) Solar radiation models. Part 2: Comparison and developing new models, Energy Sources,

,521–530. doi:10.1080/00908310490429704

Yigit, A., and Atmaca, I. (2010) Güneş enerjisi, Alfa aktüel yayınları, Bursa, Türkiye.

Yildiz, M., and Oz, S. (1994) Evaluation of the solar energy potential of Turkey, Proceedings of the 6th National Energy Congress, İzmir, Turkey, 250–260.




Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.